Alberta’s success at attracting migrants is building pressures

Alberta’s population has grown rapidly over the last three years, driven by a surge in international migration. The province has also topped the list of domestic migration for eight quarters running, attracting people from Ontario, British Columbia, and elsewhere thanks to its high wages, lower housing costs, and tax breaks for skilled tradespeople.

What you will learn:

• Growth has been fastest in Alberta’s CMAs but within them, the expansion has depended upon geographic, economic, and political factors. For example, land annexation around Chestermere means that is has almost been subsumed by Calgary, while in contrast, the southwest of Lethbridge is more restricted by First Nation reserve land. Leduc in Edmonton CMA is looking to take advantage of its vicinity to the airport through the 65th Avenue project.
• The number of new people in Alberta has strained the education and healthcare systems, while the increased demand for housing has pushed up both housing rents and selling prices. This also means that job vacancies in construction and other skilled trades are still high, despite actively advertising in other provinces for people with these skills.
• The federal government has slashed its targets for immigration. We now expect the national population to fall for five quarters from mid-2025, while the long-run growth profile is slightly lower too. Over the period to 2027, we project population growth in Alberta to slow dramatically but remain positive, at 1.3% per year. This should relieve many of the aforementioned pressures, but it will not eliminate them.