Planning Resilient Trade Infrastructure for a Changing Global Economy

A major UK trade gateway partnered with Oxford Economics to develop a long-term, scenario-tested forecast—informing infrastructure investment, climate-aligned planning, and operational resilience through to 2035.

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Challenge Solution Result

A leading UK trade gateway required a forward-looking forecast to guide investment and enhance long-term planning.

As one of the country’s most significant and diverse port operations, this major UK gateway plays a vital role in supporting national supply chains and connecting the UK to global markets. With trade patterns shifting, climate targets accelerating, and economic uncertainty growing, the port authority sought a long-term forecast to underpin future investment decisions and ensure infrastructure remained resilient and aligned with evolving demands.

With cargo volumes tied to changes in consumer demand, industrial production, and construction activity, a data-driven, sector-specific approach was essential to understand how trade flows would evolve across container, bulk, and liquid segments.

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The Challenge

Amid rising global uncertainty, a leading UK port authority was under increasing pressure to plan for the future in a rapidly changing trade environment. Structural shifts driven by Brexit, decarbonisation commitments, supply chain realignments, and evolving consumer demand were making it difficult to forecast long-term trade volumes and infrastructure requirements.

Cargo flows were becoming less predictable, influenced by fluctuations in industrial production, construction activity, and policy direction. To support informed investment decisions and maintain competitiveness, the port required a reliable, sector-specific trade outlook that could identify risks and growth opportunities over a 15-year horizon, while accounting for regional economic conditions and climate targets.

The Solution

Oxford Economics delivered a comprehensive, scenario-based trade forecast extending to 2035, underpinned by macroeconomic drivers such as GDP growth, sectoral production trends, and demographic shifts. The forecast provided detailed projections across key cargo segments, including consumer goods, food, chemicals, construction materials, and automotive products.

Industry-level gross value-added (GVA) data was used to model export trends, while scenario testing accounted for potential policy, market, and environmental shifts. This forward-looking analysis enabled the port authority to evaluate future capacity needs, align infrastructure investments with projected trade flows, and develop long-term strategies that are resilient, climate-aligned, and adaptable to changing global conditions.

The Result

With access to Oxford Economics’ robust, scenario-tested trade forecast, the port authority is now equipped to make confident, forward-looking infrastructure and investment decisions. The analysis revealed short-term pressures on trade volumes due to economic headwinds, but also identified a pathway to long-term recovery supported by population growth, trade diversification, and evolving industry needs. Sector-specific insights highlighted growth opportunities in construction materials, chemicals, and automotive components, while also flagging risks in traditional exports such as paper and fuel products.

These insights have strengthened the authority’s ability to optimise terminal capacity, align capital planning with future demand, and ensure operational resilience in a decarbonising and increasingly complex global trade environment.

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