From the national outlook to the markets you lend in
Scenarios, monitoring, and CECL and CCAR support for US financial institutions, all on one economic framework.
WHY OXFORD ECONOMICS
An independent view you can rely on.
Independent
No trading, lending or ratings business, so our view carries no conflicts.
Trusted modeling
Used by central banks and financial institutions, from the global outlook to your local markets.
The story behind the scenario
Narrative-driven scenarios explain what drives an event, not just the stressed numbers.
Direct access to economists
A dedicated US team to help you interpret the outlook for your markets.
One integrated offer
One forecast. Four ways to use it.
Every solution runs on the same baseline, so your monitoring, stress tests and allowance never disagree.
One Oxford Economics baseline
2027 peak
US Macro & Financial Intelligence
Track it alongside every state and metro in your footprint.
Find out moreScenario Generation
Build a narrative-driven scenario in the Global Economic Model, translated to your states and metros.
See how scenarios are builtCCAR
Carry it into the scenarios behind your capital plan.
Built for every institution
Sized to your footprint
From a single-state community bank to a national lender. Tell us where you operate.
Community banks
Focus on the markets that matter.
Your state and its metros, with board-ready outputs and no in-house economics team needed.
- US Macro & Financial Intelligence Core. Your state and its metros
- Global Economic Model Custom scenarios when you need them
- CECL Recommended. Scenarios at the geography of your loan book
- CCAR Not typically required
us macro & financial intelligence
See what change could mean for your portfolio
One dashboard for the national outlook, your states and metros, real estate and narrative scenarios.
Ohio unemployment rate, %
Baseline Higher for longer History
Job growth by metro, 2027, %
Narrative. Healthcare and logistics hiring keeps Columbus and Indianapolis ahead of the footprint average.
CRE total return by sector, footprint, 2027, %
Narrative. Industrial and multifamily lead; office returns stay weak as hybrid work persists.
Analysis on every timescale
Daily
Data releases and market moves, explained
Weekly
The US economy, rates and the Fed
Monthly
Forecast updates for the nation, states and metros
Quarterly
In-depth outlooks, including real estate
Event-driven
Rapid analysis when the Fed, tariffs or shocks move the outlook
Dashboard
Tailored to your footprint
Narrative scenarios
Regularly updated stories, not just shocks
Databank
Monthly data, forecasts to 2060
Economist office hours
Direct access to our US team
AskOEAI
Answers tailored to your bank and role
Statistical scenarios
National and subnational statistical scenarios
AI Scenario Assistant
Scenarios that match your story
Describe the risk in natural language. Get a fully modeled national scenario back from the Global Economic Model.
Describe it
A precise shock or a broad story
Preview inputs
Mapped to model indicators
Run it
A full Global Economic Model simulation
Get results
National macro and financial outputs
Keep it current
Updated with each new baseline
Try a scenario
Create a higher-for-longer rate scenario where the Fed holds rates 100bp above our baseline through 2028.
Here’s a starting point from our latest US outlook. Sticky services inflation keeps the Fed on hold, yields and mortgage rates climb, and rate-sensitive housing and business investment slow.
- US Economic Outlook
- Fed policy research
- Verified sources
Inputs, change vs. baseline
| Input | Geography | Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | US | 2027 to 2028 | +100bp |
| 10-year Treasury yield | US | 2027 to 2028 | +75bp |
| 30-year mortgage rate | US | 2027 to 2028 | +90bp |
Results
US unemployment rate, %
Baseline Scenario
National results. State and metro detail comes from our custom scenario service.
Model a commercial real estate downturn led by office, with tighter credit for property developers.
This draws on our real estate research. Falling commercial property values and tighter credit cut construction and business investment, and the slowdown spreads to hiring.
- Real estate outlook
- US Economic Outlook
- Verified sources
Inputs, change vs. baseline
| Input | Geography | Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial property prices | US | 2027 to 2028 | -22% |
| Nonresidential construction | US | 2027 | -12% |
| Business lending | US | 2027 | -5% |
Results
US GDP growth, %
Baseline Scenario
National results. State and metro detail comes from our custom scenario service.
Build a scenario where tariffs and weak demand drive a sharp slump in US manufacturing and auto production.
Here’s a scenario built from our trade and industry research. Higher tariffs and weaker demand cut factory output, and job losses spread through supply chains to household incomes.
- Trade research
- Industry research
- Verified sources
Inputs, change vs. baseline
| Input | Geography | Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing output | US | 2027 | -8% |
| Motor vehicle production | US | 2027 | -15% |
| Goods exports | US | 2027 | -10% |
Results
US industrial production, % y/y
Baseline Scenario
National results. State and metro detail comes from our custom scenario service.
What happens to the US economy if credit spreads widen sharply and funding conditions tighten?
This uses our financial markets research. Risk reprices, corporate spreads widen and equities fall; tighter lending standards slow investment and hiring, and Treasury yields drop as investors seek safety.
- Financial markets research
- US Economic Outlook
- Verified sources
Inputs, change vs. baseline
| Input | Geography | Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBB corporate spread | US | 2027 | +250bp |
| Equity prices | US | 2027 | -25% |
| Commercial lending | US | 2027 | -6% |
Results
US unemployment rate, %
Baseline Scenario
National results. State and metro detail comes from our custom scenario service.
Need it for your footprint?
Our custom scenario service translates national scenarios to your states and metros using estimated coefficients.
Ways to start
Start where you are
Add to your current provider, test us against it, or switch. Every path starts with a conversation.
Enhance
Keep your provider. Fill the gaps.
Add narrative scenarios, local insight and AI agents alongside what you already use.
Benchmark
Compare, side by side.
Run our forecasts and scenarios against your current provider’s. No switch required.
Switch
A structured 12-month pathway.
Move fully to Oxford Economics, with a parallel run and a checkpoint at every phase.
Do we have to switch providers to work with you?
No. You can enhance your current provider, benchmark us against it, or switch. A benchmark is the easiest place to start.
Can we run Oxford Economics alongside our current provider?
Yes. Enhance and Benchmark both run alongside your provider. If you switch, the parallel run typically covers months 4 to 10, so your teams and validators can compare results before anything is switched off.
How long does switching take?
A typical switch goes live around month 10, with a review in months 11 and 12. We agree on your plan and checkpoints at kickoff.
Do we need to replace our CRE data platform?
No. Keep the CRE data and loan-level analytics platforms you already use. We add the economic context behind them.
Can we start with a single state?
Yes. FS Monitoring is tailored to your geographic footprint, so you can start with the states you operate in and add more as you grow.
Is the AI Scenario Assistant national or local?
The AI Scenario Assistant builds national scenarios in the Global Economic Model. Our custom scenario service translates scenarios to your states and metros using estimated coefficients.
What do our model validators get?
Model documentation, parallel-run comparisons and direct access to the economists and modelers behind the scenarios, from a provider with no trading, lending or ratings business.
How often are forecasts and scenarios updated?
We publish monthly data and forecasts and regularly update our narrative scenarios, so every scenario is anchored to a current view of the economy.
solution guide
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