Research Briefing
The 'Liberation Day' tariffs, together with separately announced higher tariffs on auto imports to the US, will lead us to...
Research Briefing
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 2252 results
Research Briefing
Research Briefing US Rolls Up Welcome Mat for International Travel Trump tariffs set to raise effective rate above 1930s levels.
Research Briefing
In two or three years' time, US imports could fall by around 15% due to discounted reciprocal tariff hikes.
Research Briefing
Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been among the most exposed to Russia's war in Ukraine and will...
Research Briefing
US President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Research Briefing
While the automotive tariffs will likely lead to some production being reshored to US plants, they will also raise costs...
Research Briefing
President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Research Briefing
Wealth effects proved to be a quite reliable tailwind to consumer spending this cycle.
Research Briefing
The Spring Statement delivered on Wednesday 26 March is likely to prove a stopgap ahead of a more comprehensive overhaul...
Research Briefing
Our bottom-up framework of how imports feed into consumer spending identifies where we expect the largest tariff impacts.
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast now assumes that European defence spending will rise to 3% of GDP by the end of the...
Research Briefing
A series of problems have undermined confidence in the accuracy of official economic statistics for the UK. When using Office...
Research Briefing
We assess the implications and risks for our commodity price forecasts against the backdrop of a 'fragile' ceasefire in the...
Research Briefing
If there’s one thing more damaging than tariffs themselves, it’s the sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty.
Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
Research Briefing
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry,...
Research Briefing
The impact of global tariffs, a high degree of policy uncertainty, and higher for longer interest rates are expected to...
Research Briefing
We've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Australia by 0.2ppts to 2.1%. Growth in 2024 was in line with...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.50% at Wednesday's meeting, as expected. Despite a marginally higher...
Research Briefing
We have revised our CPI forecast upwards for this year and next, due to more persistent supply side-driven food inflation,...
