Research Briefing
Another Trump presidency will increase US fiscal stimulus, curb immigration, and lead to new tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and...
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Research Briefing
Following the outcome of the US elections, we have adopted our 'limited Trump' scenario as our new baseline forecast. Our...
Research Briefing
We think improving profitability and falling interest rates will underpin a gradual pickup in UK business investment. But this follows...
Research Briefing
Following Wednesday's UK Budget, gilt yields have risen sharply as financial markets appear concerned over the scale of the extra...
As campaigning in the US election comes to a close, we look at the potential implications of victory by each...
Research Briefing
The broad shape of the UK Budget was largely as expected, but the scale of the increases in current spending,...
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's lower house elections on Sunday, which...
Research Briefing
Inflation is the foremost issue voters are concerned about, and how it is perceived will determine the election.
Research Briefing
We still see the presidential election as a coin flip, but our updated scenarios suggest that upside risks to our...
Research Briefing
We remain concerned about the potential fallout in Latin America from a second Trump presidency in areas other than a...
While our short-term outlook for the global economy has largely remained steady over the past quarter, the balance of risks...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is for some form of divided government that will not alter the current trajectory of industrial growth. If either side achieves a...
Research Briefing
Current polling suggests Canadians are poised to vote in a Conservative majority government that would usher in a sea change...
Research Briefing
A Kamala Harris presidency wouldn't materially alter the economic outlook for Canada. Another term for Donald Trump would usher in...
Research Briefing
Though Vice President Kamala Harris' chances of winning the election have improved since her debate with former President Donald Trump,...
Research Briefing
We created a real-time tracker of unauthorized migrants to the US, the driving force behind the nation's post-pandemic immigration surge....
Research Briefing
The UK grew at an above-trend pace in H1 2024, but we don't expect this to be sustained over the...
Research Briefing
Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4...
Research Briefing
As the US election approaches, the potential economic outcomes are on everyone’s mind. Regardless of the result, the economy is...
Research Briefing
Vice President Kamala Harris has released the first part of her economic plan. In it, she proposes an expansion of...
