Our modelling suggests the main beneficiaries of the spending will be a highly concentrated subset of capital-intensive subsectors, mainly in...
Fiscal policy
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 297 results
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's upper house elections on July...
Forecasting the cotton market goes beyond understanding traditional agricultural metrics and into issues such as trade, energy and global economic...
Research Briefing
The July baseline forecast will fully adopt the Republican tax-and-spending bill, which is poised to become law by the July...
Research Briefing
NATO's commitment to spend 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035 is broadly in line with the change to...
Research Briefing
The German finance ministry's draft budget for 2025 and updated medium-term fiscal plan show the government is embarking on a...
Research Briefing
Our scenario analysis reveals a partial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would push the Japanese economy into...
The economy is being tested by higher tariffs, enormous policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and high interest rates. There are some...
Research Briefing
For some governments, pressure from markets to set out clearer or more ambitious fiscal plans may build, posing a downside...
Research Briefing
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could boost GDP over the next two years, with new tariffs helping to steady...
Research Briefing
The report argues that enhancing project bankability should become a main policy priority as part of climate investment endeavors.
Consulting Report
Sustainable finance is not merely a climate imperative but a development necessity. As climate risks intensify, Africa must urgently mobilise...
Research Briefing
We expect Japan's fiscal outlook to deteriorate due to weak economic growth and pressure on the government to implement fiscal...
Research Briefing
Fed officials remain cautious amid rising inflation and ongoing policy uncertainty. The latest FOMC meeting highlights the challenges facing the...
Research Briefing
Rising tariffs, tightening credit, and slowing demand are straining the US economy especially for small businesses. Could these be early...
Research Briefing
House Republicans have narrowly passed a reconciliation bill aligned with President Trump's economic goals, including short-term tax cuts and cost...
Research Briefing
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast.
Research Briefing
The 'Liberation Day' tariffs, together with separately announced higher tariffs on auto imports to the US, will lead us to...
Research Briefing
The Spring Statement delivered on Wednesday 26 March is likely to prove a stopgap ahead of a more comprehensive overhaul...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast now assumes that European defence spending will rise to 3% of GDP by the end of the...
