Research Briefing
RESEARCH BRIEFING Travel Industry Monitor: Q1 2026 A quarterly online survey capturing industry sentiment on tourism trends and travel outlook.
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The 2026 severely adverse scenario introduces a more structured and transparent design, with a greater reliance on a published macroeconomic...
Consulting Report
The rail supply industry plays a critical role in keeping the nation’s freight and passenger rail networks operating, investing, and...
Research Briefing
Higher oil prices may lift short-term inflation expectations, but long-term expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s 2% target. This limits...
Research Briefing
The disruption in oil prices due to the Iran conflict will have a disproportionate impact on low-income households, as they...
Research Briefing
We revised our forecast for consumer spending down in the second March baseline, released Friday, to reflect higher oil prices,...
Research Briefing
Our PCE nowcast estimates that the year-over-year headline PCE will hold steady at 2.8%, while core PCE will inch lower...
Research Briefing
EU supply chains remain highly exposed to external risks. In the past six years, the bloc hasn't materially reduced its...
The US warehousing sector has undergone a profound transformation, evolving from traditional storage sites into high‑throughput logistics hubs that handle...
Research Briefing
Our January PCE nowcast points to a slightly stronger monthly gain than seen in the CPI report, with headline PCE...
Research Briefing
This conflict is larger and more intense than the 2025 12-Day War, with major implications for oil markets, global assets,...
Consulting Report
The rapid deployment of generative and agentic AI in the financial services sector is expanding the scope of AI systems,...
Research Briefing
Tensions in Iran threaten global energy security through the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most...
Research Briefing
The White House has pivoted to a new tariff authority to impose a 10% global duty, with the possibility of...
Research Briefing
A jobless expansion, the growing role of financial wealth, and the impact of fiscal policy will widen the bifurcation of...
Research Briefing
AI spending boosted US GDP by 0.4ppts in 2025 and we expect it to add a similar amount this year.
The Supreme court ruling on tariffs lowers the effective tariff rate down sharply. In this report, we discuss its implications.
Research Briefing
While Kevin Warsh, the Trump administration's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, was a more hawkish member of the Federal Open...
Research Briefing
While we mostly agree with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's argument that the economy is in a supply-side expansion...
Research Briefing
The US is loosening restrictions on advanced chip exports to China, hoping to slow its manufacturing progress, but China’s drive...
