Research Briefing
Inventories – normally a strong predictor of the business cycle – are uncharacteristically low, even though global growth is at...
Inflation
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Research Briefing
Headline CPI inflation rose 5.4% y/y in July 2021, but regional inflation is uneven, with prices up 5.9% y/y in...
Research Briefing
Saudi Arabia’s GDP rose 1.5% y/y in Q2 according to the flash estimate. This was mainly driven by a boost...
Research Briefing
Headline CPI inflation in Canada was up 3.1% y/y in June, and we expect that a transient release of pent-up...
Research Briefing
The PMIs for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar all remained in expansionaryterritory in July at 55.8, 54.0 and 52.2...
Research Briefing
We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium...
Although the structural drags on inflation in commodity prices will remain post-COVID, short-term cyclical factors have risen sharply in recent...
Research Briefing
The August 12 national elections could mark a key turning point for Zambia’s future. Deteriorating economic conditions have left President...
Research Briefing
Elevated inflation is giving policymakers in Central and Eastern Europe headaches. Two of the regions’ outperformers, Poland and Hungary, are...
Research Briefing
Eurozone inflation is set to push above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2018. But we think...
Research Briefing
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has played a key role in leading India’s pandemic policy response. While elevated inflation...
Research Briefing
Amid deadlock within OPEC+, speculation is rising that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reached a compromise over production quotas,...
Research Briefing
Another upside inflation surprise points to the CPI measure peaking much higher than we previously thought. But June’s rise in...
Commodity price surges were associated with spikes in inflation in the 1970s, but have not been so in recent decades....
Research Briefing
For the first time in nearly a decade, Spain will see inflation average over 2% this year. Indeed, in the...
Research Briefing
The MPC now thinks CPI inflation could exceed 3% this year, with the risk of an even bigger overshoot of...
Inflation has become the all-consuming focus of investors’ attention in recent weeks. On the surface the story is simple—transitory factors...
Research Briefing
The US economy is unlikely to experience an inflation regime shift. But after a decade of glacial price rises in...
Research Briefing
Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further...
Research Briefing
Rapid house price rises are feeding into a broader asset price boom that’s the strongest in decades and also unusually...
