Research Briefing
News-based measures show a sharp rise in uncertainty in early 2026, driven by geopolitics and tariffs. But survey evidence and...
Geopolitical risk
Filter content
Tag
Region
In this blog, we discuss the implications of the US–Venezuela conflict for both countries’ economies, as well as for global...
Research Briefing
Even under our strong upside scenarios for oil and migrant return, Venezuela's GDP returns to just 50% below the 2013...
Research Briefing
If the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Iran break down, how likely is it that Iran will stop shipping through...
Research Briefing
The outlook for the global economy has improved since the previous quarter’s Global Scenarios Service report and a soft landing...
Research Briefing
The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East does not pose a downside risk to the US economy because...
Research Briefing
World goods trade declined in 2023, reversing the trend of 2022. This development points to the resumption of the decade-long...
Research Briefing
We think that global real estate investment trust (REIT) prices will continue to grow in H1 on the expectation that...
Research Briefing
The US has come out of the pandemic in better shape than China with GDP above pre-pandemic forecasts, whereas China...
Research Briefing
Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. While we have revised up our expectations for global growth this year given the...
Research Briefing
While decoupling in specific industries is a concern for global trade, deglobalisation at a larger scale presents a small but...
Research Briefing
While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren't heading into a major economic downturn, a global recession remains...
We think rapidly deteriorating demand and easing commodity prices will prompt the Czech National Bank (CNB) to start cutting rates at the end of Q2.
