Research Briefing
Fears that President-elect Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or meddle with the Federal Open...
Fed Policy
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Research Briefing
During the next presidential term, the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in...
Research Briefing
We still think a mild recession is likely toward the end of this year in the US, sparked by elevated...
Research Briefing
The Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act that passed last summer are spurring a sharp rise in investment in...
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
The latest Beige Book revealed an economy that on balance was treading water heading into 2023.
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
We expect Asian currencies to stabilise, if not strengthen, versus the US dollar in 2023, as the Fed pauses hiking...
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
Research Briefing
The precipitous decline of the Yen to record fresh lows (and briefly above 150 last month) coupled with a dramatic...
Research Briefing
To no one's surprise, the FOMC raised interest rates by 75bps for a fourth consecutive meeting, lifting the target range...
Research Briefing
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, but financial conditions are not under enough...
Research Briefing
The September jobs data report and the August JOLTS offered some signs of a loosening in labor market conditions. Job...
