2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland unchanged at 2.3% as activity remains solid

Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. The economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q4 2021, slightly better than we expected, and the Omicron wave is likely to have peaked in several regions with the remaining mild restrictions set to be relaxed soon.

What you will learn:

• After a relatively slow start to Q1, we expect the economy to accelerate. The squeeze on real incomes due to high inflation is the key downside risk.
• The employment rate has already recovered to its pre-pandemic level and the unemployment rate was at 7.2% in December, while companies in construction and industry report large labour shortages.
• Industry jumped by 3.1% m/m in December amid further signs that global supply-chain bottlenecks have peaked and are beginning to ease.