Research Briefing
We've adopted our "limited Trump scenario" as our baseline forecast for Japan. We now assume that the US will impose...
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Research Briefing
We now believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until January to hike the policy rate. We previously assumed...
Research Briefing
A secular labour shortage will continue to raise wages and inflation in a sustainable and irreversible manner in Japan.
Research Briefing
In the second release of the November baseline, we updated our tariff assumptions, but the impact on GDP, inflation, and...
Research Briefing
We have revised down our global economic forecasts slightly from our snap post-election assessment. The broad picture is little changed,...
Research Briefing
Amid the fast-progressing electric vehicle (EV) shift, maintaining high competitiveness in auto-related sectors and ensuring a smooth labour transition across...
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's lower house elections on Sunday, which...
Research Briefing
Labour turnover is quickly rising among full-time workers in Japan, where long-term employment has been prevailing. Although a serious labour...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.25% during Friday's meeting. Although we still expect an additional rate...
Research Briefing
We now expect the Bank of Japan will implement an additional rate hike this year, possibly in October, given the...
Research Briefing
Our new proprietary business cycle phase indicator points to a trough in sight for industry, but with dispersion among sectors....
Research Briefing
Abrupt yen appreciations have been associated with, or preludes to, global financial instability. So far, the recent yen surge has...
Research Briefing
We estimate that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate – the rate consistent with monetary policy that is neither stimulative nor...
Research Briefing
At Wednesday's policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the policy rate to 0.25% without clear evidence of wage-driven...
Research Briefing
At the July policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will reveal its plan for reducing JGB purchases over the...
Research Briefing
Related Posts Takaichi’s big win doesn’t affect the fiscal outlook for Japan The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) landslide election...
Research Briefing
Some market participants are raising concerns over a fall in demand for US Treasuries from Japanese investors amid higher domestic...
Research Briefing
As expected, the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 0%-0.1% at Friday's meeting. With more confidence on the ongoing wage-driven...
Global supply chains have continued to expand, despite talk of deglobalization and nearshoring. US and Japan have started to de-couple...
