AI winners and losers: a global sector view

AI is already changing the shape of the global economy, but the gains are far from evenly spread. Indeed, AI investment is concentrated on a narrow set of products, mainly chips, servers, software, and data centres, and much of the hardware is made in a handful of tech-focused economies.

Consequently, a continuation of the boom or a sharp bust would impact some industries and economies much more significantly than others. Over the longer term, our research shows differences in AI exposure and levels of adoption could open large gaps in productivity and output across sectors. In this webinar, Makoto Tsuchiya and Charlie Muir will present the global sector level results of our AI scenarios, covering:

Short-term boom and bust: changes in data centre demand affects tech-exporting economies the most, with impacts concentrated in electronic components and semiconductors. In a tech downturn, a stock market correction would also drag on consumer spending, spreading to household-facing and other non-AI sectors.

Long-term productivity: how exposed each industry is to AI in production, and how widely AI is adopted, drives differences in productivity gains, with implications for economic activity across sectors and economies.

This webinar is being held on our new platform, ON24. If you do not receive your confirmation email, please check your junk and spam folders.

Speakers

Charlie Muir

Charlie is a Senior Economist in the industry team, based in London. He works on the global industry service, where his main focus is improving the service through model development and research alongside the regular forecast updates. He also runs the industry climate service and works on AI strategy for the team. Previously, he coordinated the forecast updates for the global industry service and was responsible for forecasting the consumer goods sectors.
He achieved a first-class degree in Economics at the University of Bath and joined Oxford Economics in July 2021.

Senior Economist, Industry

Makoto Tsuchiya

Makoto Tsuchiya is an Economist at Oxford Economics. He oversees the forecast and analysis of the electronics sector, including semiconductors. He also works on a wide range of client projects, by way of producing bespoke forecasts as well as written reports. Makoto has a Bachelor’s degree from Temple University Japan where he majored in Economics with a minor in Business Studies. He also has sophisticated knowledge in the corporate accounting field.

Economist