Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Global trade
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Research Briefing
The nominal goods trade deficit was at its widest in January, signaling businesses had front-loaded goods shipments ahead of new...
Research Briefing
We previously identified four core megatrends – demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation – as the key drivers shaping the long-term outlook.
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven...
Infographic
This infographic presents our Megatrends Scenarios model, which outlines various long-term global scenarios.
Research Briefing
We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump has announced or threatened a range of fresh tariffs in recent weeks. While we expect the...
Research Briefing
European pharmaceuticals, machinery, and high-tech goods are heavily exported to the US, making them vulnerable to across-the-board US tariffs. However,...
Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less...
Research Briefing
The United States has introduced an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports as part of the opening round of the...
Research Briefing
With US President Trump's persistent tariff threats, a US-Canada trade war now appears likely.
Research Briefing
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.
Research Briefing
Our analysis of industry and trade structure between the US and Japan reveals the auto and non-electrical machinery sectors are...
Research Briefing
We have incorporated a 10% blanket tariff by the US and immediate retaliation by the EU in our forecast for...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion...
Research Briefing
After several years of rapid growth, we think Denmark's pharmaceutical sector has reached an inflection point and production will settle...
Research Briefing
Potential US tariffs would be disruptive for the eurozone economy as a whole, but we think their inflationary impact is...
Research Briefing
President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these...
Research Briefing
Donald Trump's tariff threats for day one of his new presidency would have a heavy impact on the Mexican economy...
