While the direct macro effects of new (and potential) US tariffs could prove manageable for an economy with China's fiscal...
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Research Briefing
While the automotive tariffs will likely lead to some production being reshored to US plants, they will also raise costs...
2025 is off to an interesting start for global travel. Two months into his second term, President Trump has begun...
Research Briefing
President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Research Briefing
Our bottom-up framework of how imports feed into consumer spending identifies where we expect the largest tariff impacts.
Much has changed in the political landscape since Trump's inauguration over 60 days ago. Join us as our top economists...
Research Briefing
If there’s one thing more damaging than tariffs themselves, it’s the sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty.
Research Briefing
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry,...
Research Briefing
Related Services TradePrism TradePrism delivers advanced insights into global trade dynamics, helping policy leaders, supply chain strategists, and risk managers...
Research Briefing
The slew of tariff proposals coming out of the US has added much uncertainty to the highly export-reliant Singapore economy....
Research Briefing
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff...
Research Briefing
Trade tensions between the EU and the US are escalating. Aggressive protectionist policies have been a key instrument for Trump...
Research Briefing
Tariffs don't have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements...
Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Research Briefing
The nominal goods trade deficit was at its widest in January, signaling businesses had front-loaded goods shipments ahead of new...
Research Briefing
We previously identified four core megatrends – demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation – as the key drivers shaping the long-term outlook.
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven...
Infographic
This infographic presents our Megatrends Scenarios model, which outlines various long-term global scenarios.
