Research Briefing
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.
Fiscal policy
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Research Briefing
The UK is planning one of the largest fiscal consolidations of any advanced economy over the next two years. We...
Research Briefing
President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff...
Research Briefing
President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these...
Consulting Report
The EU VAT Gap 2024 report offers an extensive analysis of the value-added tax (VAT) compliance and policy gaps across...
Research Briefing
The aggregate economic impact of the recently finalised EU-Mercosur trade pact will be modest if it gets final approval.
Research Briefing
Our Watchlist 2025 unpacks the likelihood of a South African economic boom and Kenya falling off a fiscal cliff. We...
Research Briefing
The creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), along with the incoming Treasury secretary's goal of halving the deficit...
Research Briefing
The three major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration—expansionary fiscal policy, lower immigration, and tariffs—will have mixed implications...
Research Briefing
The spread between French and German government bonds has reached its highest level since the height of the eurozone sovereign...
Research Briefing
House prices are booming in Spain. A combination of strong demand and supply-side constraints has placed significant upward pressure on...
Research Briefing
This Research Briefing presents two scenarios for Ghana’s December 7 general election, based on our assessment of the election manifestos...
Research Briefing
We estimate that the weight-loss drug industry will be worth $80bn-140bn annually by 2030, thanks to rising rates of obesity...
Research Briefing
Our proprietary models signal the lowest probability of recession in more than two years as strong incoming data indicates that...
Research Briefing
Fears that President-elect Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or meddle with the Federal Open...
Research Briefing
We received many questions, including during our recent webinar, about the changes to the forecast following the election along with...
Research Briefing
Our sticker-shock model of the 2024 presidential election accurately predicted the winner of nearly all 50 states and the District...
Research Briefing
Increased spending to meet the needs of an ageing population jeopardises the sustainability of Europe's public pension systems, based on...
Research Briefing
Recently, Asian economies have looked to consolidate their fiscal balances as the need for counter-cyclical policy reduces.
Research Briefing
Following Wednesday's UK Budget, gilt yields have risen sharply as financial markets appear concerned over the scale of the extra...
