What does a Fractured World look like?

We previously identified four core megatrends – demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation – as the key drivers shaping the long-term outlook. Each megatrend evolves with its own set of uncertainties, which can be analysed through scenario modelling and then compared to our baseline long-term view.

What you will learn:

• Our most recent Global Risk Survey showed that over one-third of businesses identified geopolitical tensions and protectionism as the most significant long-term economic risk. The Fractured World scenario in our new Megatrends Scenarios service models this risk.
• In this scenario modelling an increasingly protectionist world, globalisation unwinds as governments champion economic nationalism and promote self-reliance through increased trade restrictions. As a result, global trade intensity falls, reversing the gains made in the 2010s.
• The environment of heightened geopolitical tension and uncertainty harms the global economy, destabilising fiscal, monetary, and diplomatic policy.
• Emerging markets are the hardest hit as heightened geopolitical tensions and reduced trade lead to a fall in foreign direct investment and knowledge spillovers.

Discover the Megatrends Scenarios service—your key to understanding the future of the global economy. 

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