The barrel boom before the transition
Africa’s oil production is on the rise, with emerging producers shifting the landscape. Discover how local demand is changing the game for suppliers.
We’ve comprehensively reviewed our oil production predictions for several African countries as part of a broader upgrade to our oil forecast methodology. Following the update, we now expect cumulative continental output to reach nearly 8.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2030, an increase of approximately 930,000 bpd from our previous projection. Despite this growth, Africa’s share of global oil supply will only slightly increase to 7.8%.
The continent’s four largest producers, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, and Libya, are expected to contribute an additional 460,000 bpd by 2030, with Nigeria leading at 1.8 mbpd. Emerging producers, particularly Egypt and other frontier nations, are anticipated to collectively supply nearly 2.5 mbpd, showcasing a shift in the oil landscape.
While Africa continues to exploit its oil resources, it faces a structural decline in global oil demand. However, continental demand is projected to grow at 2.7% per annum between 2024 and 2030, significantly outpacing the global average of 0.4%, presenting an opportunity for African producers to thrive amidst changing market dynamics.
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