Africa: A refining boom on borrowed time

Africa’s oil refining landscape is undergoing significant changes, driven by recent geopolitical events and ambitious expansion plans. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp increases in fuel prices across the continent, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced domestic refining capacity.

The continent’s reliance on imported refined products remains a concern, as many countries struggle to meet emergency oil stock benchmarks set by the International Energy Agency. By 2030, Africa’s refining capacity could reach approximately 5.5 million barrels per day in an optimistic scenario, on par with the continent’s projected demand for refined petroleum products.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote is at the forefront of this refining boom, with plans to expand his Lagos refinery to 1.4 mbpd and establish a new facility in Lamu, Kenya. However, challenges such as legal disputes and competition from cheaper imports could hinder progress.

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