Research Briefing
The MPC and OBR both judge that UK potential GDP has fallen outright since Q4 2019 and will register only...
Economic outlook
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Research Briefing
Pioneering research has used panel econometric techniques to estimate the economic impact of average temperatures. Building on that approach, we...
Research Briefing
It's been a horrible period for EM portfolio debt flows. The better news is that broader capital flows to EMs...
Research Briefing
We expect real estate values to correct sharply in 2023, but pressure should gradually alleviate as policy rates peak.
Research Briefing
Over the medium and long term, differences in city economic performance are hugely influenced by disparities in productivity growth. In...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate.
Research Briefing
The energy crisis will shape the macroeconomic outlook again in 2023, keeping the eurozone economy in recession at the start...
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
We expect the Japanese economy to grow at 0.9% y/y in 2023, after 1.6% growth in 2022. Four reasons why...
Research Briefing
As Russia's war in Ukraine enters a new phase, so does the economic crisis. Based on my conversations with locals...
Research Briefing
The Hungarian economy is being hit by a perfect storm of shocks, particularly surging inflation and a weakening currency. Our...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% at yesterday's meeting, undershooting consensus and our...
A remarkably consistent fact of energy usage across economies, industries, and energy types is that intensity has come down steeply...
Research Briefing
Despite the recent deterioration in the UK housing market, we think the doomsday scenario set out in the Bank of...
Research Briefing
While most measures suggest a tight UK labour market, the pass-through to wage growth has been weak. We expect labour...
Research Briefing
The CNB again left the policy rate unchanged at 7% at the November meeting, staying put for the third consecutive...
Research Briefing
Russia’s shutdown of natural gas flows to Europe has resulted in skyrocketing regional prices. This has contributed to a significant...
Research Briefing
The BoE raised Bank Rate by 75bps to 3% at its November meeting, in line with our expectations and market...
