Research Briefing
Pioneering research has used panel econometric techniques to estimate the economic impact of average temperatures. Building on that approach, we...
Economic forecasting
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 148 results
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
It's been a horrible period for EM portfolio debt flows. The better news is that broader capital flows to EMs...
Research Briefing
We expect real estate values to correct sharply in 2023, but pressure should gradually alleviate as policy rates peak.
Research Briefing
Over the medium and long term, differences in city economic performance are hugely influenced by disparities in productivity growth. In...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate.
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
Rising interest rates mean the BoE is now making a loss on the gilts it purchased under quantitative easing. With the Treasury committed to making the BoE's...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
While our outlook for emerging markets (EMs) is more upbeat than for advanced economies (AEs), we have cut our 2023...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% at yesterday's meeting, undershooting consensus and our...
A remarkably consistent fact of energy usage across economies, industries, and energy types is that intensity has come down steeply...
Research Briefing
Our analysis of the economies of metros across the US provides us with a basis for projecting household income growth...
Research Briefing
Russia’s shutdown of natural gas flows to Europe has resulted in skyrocketing regional prices. This has contributed to a significant...
Research Briefing
The BoE raised Bank Rate by 75bps to 3% at its November meeting, in line with our expectations and market...
Research Briefing
Qatar’s hosting of the Middle East's first ever World Cup is seen benefitting the wider GCC economy, and given the...
Research Briefing
UK government's U-turns on tax cuts, the prospect of further fiscal policy tightening, and calmer financial markets mean the Monetary...
Research Briefing
With the world on the cusp of a property market downturn, we have modelled three scenarios for more severe housing...
