Research Briefing
The incoming Trump administration’s trade policies will have significant impacts on China’s sectoral outlook. There will be a small near-term...
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 284 results
Research Briefing
Since we adopted greater protectionism in our November US forecast, the risks to our baseline have become more balanced. But...
Research Briefing
In the second release of the November baseline, we updated our tariff assumptions, but the impact on GDP, inflation, and...
Research Briefing
We think the impact of the stimulus announced by China on the prices of commodities exported by Africa will be...
Research Briefing
We have revised down our global economic forecasts slightly from our snap post-election assessment. The broad picture is little changed,...
Research Briefing
US tariffs under a Trump presidency and a Republican-led Congress are a major concern for China. However, we expect additional...
Research Briefing
We received many questions, including during our recent webinar, about the changes to the forecast following the election along with...
Research Briefing
Another Trump presidency will increase US fiscal stimulus, curb immigration, and lead to new tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and...
Research Briefing
India has benefited from US trade rerouting away from China since 2018, albeit to a much lesser extent than some...
Our latest whitepaper reveals that the middle class population in emerging markets is set to double over the next decade,...
Research Briefing
China's economy looks to have entered a marked downturn. Cyclical trends in China are always tricky to assess given the...
Research Briefing
Our analysis suggests that while a Harris presidency, assuming Democratic control of Congress, would have a minor positive impact on...
Research Briefing
We remain concerned about the potential fallout in Latin America from a second Trump presidency in areas other than a...
Research Briefing
Fears of a substantial escalation in the Middle East last week prompted the largest swing in the oil price in...
Discover the latest insights into the global electrical engineering & apparatus outlook with our new chartbook.
We have developed a globally consistent framework showing cross-country GDP vulnerabilities to an escalation in China-Taiwan tensions, factoring in three...
Europe’s industrial recession continues to take its toll: the EU's industrial output expected to shrink by 0.7% in 2024, a...
Research Briefing
Adverse demographic trends imply that the only alternative for sustaining China's longer-term growth momentum would be to sharply accelerate productivity growth. The timely emergence of generative AI could partially close this gap.
Research Briefing
We estimate that a 1ppt rise in US tariffs cuts imports from China by 2.5% in the long term.
Research Briefing
Major cities in the emerging global south are becoming more specialised in office-using sectors, which currently account for more than...
