Research Briefing
Regions such as the South and West will bear the brunt of the drag on consumer spending.
Fiscal policy
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Research Briefing
Early insights into US tariffs and their impact on Canadian goods
Research Briefing
Labor market conditions loosen, prompting an earlier Fed rate cut
Research Briefing
Large primary deficits make for a concerning fiscal outlook
Research Briefing
France's fragile coalition government looks set to lose a confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Consequently, Prime Minister François Bayrou's...
Higher US tariffs for many Asian economies are now in place, and persistent US trade policy uncertainty appears a given....
Research Briefing
Millions are expected to lose coverage due to new eligibility rules and the expiration of premium subsidies.
Research Briefing
The US economy will enjoy rising demand in 2026 and 2027, boosted by the recent deficit financed federal tax and...
Research Briefing
The budget reconciliation bill (OBBBA) ushers in significant cuts to the federal government's nutrition assistance program, or SNAP, that will...
Webinar
UK policymakers face some tough decisions in H2 2025. The MPC has been cutting Bank Rate gradually and now has...
Our modelling suggests the main beneficiaries of the spending will be a highly concentrated subset of capital-intensive subsectors, mainly in...
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's upper house elections on July...
Forecasting the cotton market goes beyond understanding traditional agricultural metrics and into issues such as trade, energy and global economic...
Research Briefing
The July baseline forecast will fully adopt the Republican tax-and-spending bill, which is poised to become law by the July...
Research Briefing
NATO's commitment to spend 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035 is broadly in line with the change to...
Research Briefing
The German finance ministry's draft budget for 2025 and updated medium-term fiscal plan show the government is embarking on a...
Research Briefing
Our scenario analysis reveals a partial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would push the Japanese economy into...
The economy is being tested by higher tariffs, enormous policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and high interest rates. There are some...
Research Briefing
For some governments, pressure from markets to set out clearer or more ambitious fiscal plans may build, posing a downside...
Research Briefing
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could boost GDP over the next two years, with new tariffs helping to steady...
