Research Briefing
The failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank have not changed our baseline forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, or...
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Research Briefing
We think the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) will be contained and is not a sign of systemic risks...
Research Briefing
Last week's liquidation of Silvergate Capital and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have raised questions about the risks...
Research Briefing
Our modelling finds few scenarios in which corporate credit offers a compelling return. Stickier inflation or a sharp sell-off in...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan enhanced its funds-supplying operations in January, after widening the tolerance band for 10-year JGB yields in...
Research Briefing
Our 2023 growth forecast of 4.5% for China is still 6-tenths below the consensus’ 5.1%, owing to a more cautious...
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range...
Research Briefing
A string of positive high-frequency data and an upside surprise in the flash GDP estimate for Q4 2022 have prompted...
Research Briefing
Long-term forward rates have risen markedly in the US, eurozone, and UK over the past year, and now stand well...
We think rapidly deteriorating demand and easing commodity prices will prompt the Czech National Bank (CNB) to start cutting rates at the end of Q2.
Research Briefing
Though our baseline forecast this year is a shallow global recession in the first half of the year the uncertainty...
You may be interested in Global Travel Service Detailed travel and tourism market trends and forecasts for 185 countries globally....
Research Briefing
Our cross asset framework is based on five proprietary indicators (economic cycle, credit impulse, financial stress, relative valuation, and sentiment)...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line...
Research Briefing
The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a recession next year because the headwinds are about to intensify. We...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
We think the Bank of Korea (BoK) will continue to focus on inflation and the Korean won (KRW) even as headwinds to growth and financial stability rise. In our view, an extended...
