Research Briefing
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast. Our new baseline...
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Research Briefing
The Trump administration's imposition of a blanket 20% tariff on EU imports, in addition to the wide-ranging tariff increases imposed...
Research Briefing
Our initial estimates of the direct impact from the US decision to raise tariffs on imports from the EU and...
Research Briefing
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast.
Consulting Report
Consulting Report The Economic Impact of SHEIN in the United States You might be interested in
Research Briefing
While the automotive tariffs will likely lead to some production being reshored to US plants, they will also raise costs...
Research Briefing
Wealth effects proved to be a quite reliable tailwind to consumer spending this cycle.
Research Briefing
Our bottom-up framework of how imports feed into consumer spending identifies where we expect the largest tariff impacts.
Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on goods and services imported from other countries. Think of tariff like an...
Research Briefing
Tariff threats and heightened trade policy uncertainty began causing stress in supply chains.
Research Briefing
Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally,...
Executive Summary
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions,...
Research Briefing
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff...
Research Briefing
Tariffs typically result in a one-off rise in the level of prices.
Research Briefing
Trade tensions between the EU and the US are escalating. Aggressive protectionist policies have been a key instrument for Trump...
Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
As consumer sentiment deteriorated, concerns about the outlook for consumer spending increased. While there's a statistically significant relationship between sentiment...
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Research Briefing
We will revise the forecast for federal employment significantly lower this year, and in subsequent years, because of the announced...
