We built a forward-looking framework for analyzing how US tariffs achieve or undermine the various goals touted by policymakers.
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 661 results
Research Briefing
We think it's likely that high and broad-based tariffs are here to stay because, of all the purported goals of...
Research Briefing
Tariff policies, rising geopolitical tensions and unprecedented uncertainty are putting pressure on cities and regions across the world.
Research Briefing
Rising US tariffs, a 50% copper duty, crackdowns on Asian transshipment, and renewed Red Sea conflict are piling pressure on...
Research Briefing
Additional US tariffs have led us to downgrade our short-term outlook for the German economy, with this impact mostly concentrated...
Research Briefing
Our Global Economic Model simulations suggest that a permanent 40ppt tariff hike on US imports from Brazil would have limited...
Research Briefing
The July baseline forecast will fully adopt the Republican tax-and-spending bill, which is poised to become law by the July...
Research Briefing
The German finance ministry's draft budget for 2025 and updated medium-term fiscal plan show the government is embarking on a...
Research Briefing
The net immigration into the US has slowed more abruptly than anticipated in the early days of Trump's second presidency....
Research Briefing
For some governments, pressure from markets to set out clearer or more ambitious fiscal plans may build, posing a downside...
Research Briefing
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could boost GDP over the next two years, with new tariffs helping to steady...
Research Briefing
The reshoring of US manufacturing, a key Trump administration policy objective, seems likely to continue despite the uncertain future of...
Research Briefing
We believe the recent sell-off in the dollar and US assets stems from cyclical pressures linked to tariffs and market...
Executive Summary
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions,...
Research Briefing
A recent court ruling challenges key tariffs from the Trump administration, sparking uncertainty in US trade policy. As legal battles...
Research Briefing
Fed officials remain cautious amid rising inflation and ongoing policy uncertainty. The latest FOMC meeting highlights the challenges facing the...
Research Briefing
Rising tariffs, tightening credit, and slowing demand are straining the US economy especially for small businesses. Could these be early...
Research Briefing
If the threatened tariffs on imports from the European Union and smartphones were to be implemented, it would reduce US'...
Research Briefing
House Republicans have narrowly passed a reconciliation bill aligned with President Trump's economic goals, including short-term tax cuts and cost...
Research Briefing
Research Briefing Negative Outlook for US Inbound Travel Hasn’t Budged Various headwinds continue to fuel declines in inbound travel to...
