Research Briefing
We expect the euro to stabilise against the dollar and trade around its current levels over the next year. Economic...
United States
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 662 results
Research Briefing
The risks around the forecast for federal government employment are skewed to the downside because of the limited scope for...
Research Briefing
Trump's first term was marked by policies and pronouncements that strained international relations, including trade tariffs and a travel ban...
Research Briefing
January poses a triple threat to US imports
Research Briefing
The policy implications from a second Trump presidency are expected to affect US commercial real estate (CRE) through curbed immigration,...
Research Briefing
Our proprietary models signal the lowest probability of recession in more than two years as strong incoming data indicates that...
Research Briefing
u live in interesting times in US The first release of the November baseline incorporated the election outcome, but in...
Research Briefing
In the second release of the November baseline, we updated our tariff assumptions, but the impact on GDP, inflation, and...
Research Briefing
We have revised down our global economic forecasts slightly from our snap post-election assessment. The broad picture is little changed,...
Research Briefing
Fears that President-elect Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or meddle with the Federal Open...
Research Briefing
With the heighted policy uncertainty and volatility in the bond market, can the US sustain its economic edge in 2025?
Research Briefing
Our nowcast suggests October's headline and core PCE inflation will be at their fastest monthly pace in six months and...
Research Briefing
We received many questions, including during our recent webinar, about the changes to the forecast following the election along with...
Research Briefing
Housing affordability has dropped significantly over the last five years in every major metro as house prices soared and mortgage...
Research Briefing
Our sticker-shock model of the 2024 presidential election accurately predicted the winner of nearly all 50 states and the District...
Research Briefing
Following the outcome of the US elections, we have adopted our 'limited Trump' scenario as our new baseline forecast. Our...
Research Briefing
India has benefited from US trade rerouting away from China since 2018, albeit to a much lesser extent than some...
Research Briefing
Inflation is the foremost issue voters are concerned about, and how it is perceived will determine the election.
Instead of moving away from the riskiest regions of the country, people in the US continue to move into metros...
Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models showed marked improvement in September, reversing much of the recent rise. Against this backdrop, our...
