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Friday, 10 July 2009
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Credit Crunch Watch:

Last week stress levels rose for the first time since early March. This uptick in stress came on the back of the negative shift in market sentiment concerning the outlook for global economic recovery, which has been reinforced of late by a number of weak economic indicators and cautious commentaries from major central banks. It looks too soon to say whether this is merely an interruption of the trend toward lower stress levels or a full reversal, however.  26 June 2009
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Why are US home foreclosures so high?

US mortgage foreclosures have risen to extraordinary heights in recent months, with the scale of the distress in the US mortgage market much greater than in the UK. Key factors behind this divergent performance include laxer underwriting standards in the US and the widespread existence of 'non-recourse’ loans. The latter allow borrowers in negative equity to walk away from their mortgage debt and sap the incentive to remain current on ‘underwater’ loans. As a result, steep house price falls can generate a sharp rise in foreclosures even without high interest rates or unemployment. In the UK, by contrast, there are strong incentives for home owners to remain in their properties, even when in negative equity.  25 June 2009
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Could swine flu tip the world into deflation?

Health experts agree that, while the current flu epidemic that started in Mexico in April 2009 may weaken during the summer, it could re-appear in the autumn, possibly in a stronger form. Using historical benchmarks of previous flu pandemics and of the SARS episode, we estimate the economic impact of a global flu pandemic. We estimate that world GDP would be cut by around US$2.5trillion in the six months of the pandemic or 3.5% of 2009 GDP. That a pandemic is likely to hit the world economy just as it starts to recover from recession could result in the economic impact being larger than would otherwise have been the case, and this could tip the global economy into deflation.  22 June 2009
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Sectoral Outlook Briefing Service

We are publishing new on-line briefings providing detailed forecasts for prospects in over 80 industrial sectors across 77 different countries. The new service provides:

• Forecasts for output growth on an annual basis over the next 10 years for over 80 sectors
• Charts and tables highlighting key industrial output trends, past and future
• Access to our Sectoral Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts to download for your own analysis and reports
• Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Industrial Model

View example briefs:
             Poland          China

See full range of countries covered ....

Country Briefing Service

We are publishing new on-line country briefings every day covering economic and political developments and prospects in over 175 countries, linked to our forecast databank:

• Tailor-made for busy executives, the briefings tell you everything you need to know for your business planning
• Access to our Macro Forecast Databank, offering historical data and ten-year forecasts for a host of economic and social indicators plus detailed tourism statistics
• Forecasts derived from our highly-disciplined forecasting process using our Global Model (the most widely used commercial model in the world)

View example briefs:
             Thailand          Germany          Czech Republic

See full range of countries covered ....