Beyond the Headlines | 13 10 月 2023

长期远期利率涨幅过快

Ben May

Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis

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我们最近将美国和英国的长期债券收益率预测上调了 50 个基点；我们还将日本和德国的收益率上调了 20 到 25 个基点。

在本周的 “头条新闻之外 “节目中，宏观预测与分析总监本-梅（Ben May）将与您一起讨论近期政府债券收益率的上升。

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可操作的及时情报，助您做出明智的投资决策

过去十年经济增长乏力，但这并没有减缓市场的辉煌，尤其是股票市场的回报。但是，当前的经济现实–从美国的货币紧缩到中国破碎的增长模式–可能会使中期的结果更加复杂。

为了帮助投资专业人士做出决策，在当今市场中最大限度地利用机会，牛津经济研究院提供了深入的报道以及强大的宏观和资产配置框架。我们的产品和服务可帮助决策者剔除杂音–提供开发深度经济模型、了解行业格局、评估投资可能性以及做出盈利决策所需的情报。

Hello. My name’s Ben May from Oxford Economics, and I’m here to talk today a little bit about the recent rise in government bond yields. So we’ve recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points. We’ve also revised up Japanese and German yields by 20 to 25 basis points. Even so, we still think that the market implied forward rates for 5 to 10 years time, which have risen considerably, look much too high for the major advanced economies.

True, we expect sticky inflation to only prompt a gradual reduction of policy rates by the Fed and other major central banks over the next couple of years or so. But in our opinion, the pickup in long term forward rates has gone too far and is likely to be reversed somewhat as inflation falls back to target and global growth softens.

We think that the long term real neutral interest rate is likely higher than prior to the pandemic, but we’re skeptical that there’s been a substantial increase. Markets seemingly think real neutral interest rates are rather higher than our own analysis implies is likely. We’re also sympathetic to the view that inflation will be more likely to have periods above target over the next decade than during the 2010s.

But we still expect inflation and inflation expectations to remain anchored to central banks targets. And even allowing for higher term premia to reflect factors, such as greater inflation risk and in some economies the weaker position of the public finances, we think the considerable rise in long term market forward rates over recent months looks like an overreaction.