Beyond the Headlines | 13 10 月 2023
长期远期利率涨幅过快
Ben May
Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis
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我们最近将美国和英国的长期债券收益率预测上调了 50 个基点;我们还将日本和德国的收益率上调了 20 到 25 个基点。
在本周的 “头条新闻之外 “节目中,宏观预测与分析总监本-梅(Ben May)将与您一起讨论近期政府债券收益率的上升。
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可操作的及时情报,助您做出明智的投资决策
过去十年经济增长乏力,但这并没有减缓市场的辉煌,尤其是股票市场的回报。 但是,当前的经济现实–从美国的货币紧缩到中国破碎的增长模式–可能会使中期的结果更加复杂。
为了帮助投资专业人士做出决策,在当今市场中最大限度地利用机会,牛津经济研究院提供了深入的报道以及强大的宏观和资产配置框架。 我们的产品和服务可帮助决策者剔除杂音–提供开发深度经济模型、了解行业格局、评估投资可能性以及做出盈利决策所需的情报。
Hello. My name’s Ben May from Oxford Economics, and I’m here to talk today a little bit about the recent rise in government bond yields. So we’ve recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points. We’ve also revised up Japanese and German yields by 20 to 25 basis points. Even so, we still think that the market implied forward rates for 5 to 10 years time, which have risen considerably, look much too high for the major advanced economies.
True, we expect sticky inflation to only prompt a gradual reduction of policy rates by the Fed and other major central banks over the next couple of years or so. But in our opinion, the pickup in long term forward rates has gone too far and is likely to be reversed somewhat as inflation falls back to target and global growth softens.
We think that the long term real neutral interest rate is likely higher than prior to the pandemic, but we’re skeptical that there’s been a substantial increase. Markets seemingly think real neutral interest rates are rather higher than our own analysis implies is likely. We’re also sympathetic to the view that inflation will be more likely to have periods above target over the next decade than during the 2010s.
But we still expect inflation and inflation expectations to remain anchored to central banks targets. And even allowing for higher term premia to reflect factors, such as greater inflation risk and in some economies the weaker position of the public finances, we think the considerable rise in long term market forward rates over recent months looks like an overreaction.
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Innes McFee
Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services
+44 (0) 203 910 8028
Innes McFee
Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services
London, United Kingdom
Innes McFee is the Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services, based in London. Innes oversees the activities of the Macro & Investor Services teams globally, including the Global Macro Forecast and Global Macro Service.
Innes joined Oxford Economics in 2017 after 6 years at Lloyds Banking Group as a Senior Economist. At Lloyds Innes was responsible for the economic scenarios underpinning the Group’s internal planning and stress testing; analysis of key risks; and developing Lloyds’ approach to multiple economic scenarios for IFRS9. In addition, Innes’ role included developing the Group’s capability in modelling macroeconomic fundamentals and UK banking markets and advising the Group Corporate Treasury on financial market developments.
Prior to joining Lloyds Innes was an Economic Advisor at HM Treasury where his roles included management of the UK’s foreign currency reserves; US economist; and G20 macroeconomic policy advisor. Innes has a first class undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Durham and a MSc in Economics from Warwick University.
Javier Corominas
Director of Global Macro Strategy
+44 (0) 203 910 8115
Javier Corominas
Director of Global Macro Strategy
London, United Kingdom
Javier Corominas is Director of Global Macro Strategy at Oxford Economics. He is co-responsible for global strategic asset allocation as well the tactical calls across all asset classes. Additionally, he has a significant focus on providing thematic macro strategy research to generate actionable investment advice for asset allocators, portfolio managers and corporate Treasurers.
Javier is a senior macro and multi-asset investment strategist with over 16 years’ experience in active portfolio management as well as in independent macro research.
He has a background in macro-economic modelling and forecasting, portfolio optimization and risk budgeting, asset allocation (SAA and TAA), relative value models and global thematic investment research. This is coupled with a demonstrable track record in drawing conclusions for key asset markets, and developing profitable trade and investment strategies in FX, rates and the liquid asset classes.
Prior to re-joining Oxford Economics, he was a Director and Head of Research at Record Currency Management, one of the largest institutional currency managers in the world, with pension funds, insurance companies, family offices and private equity houses as clients globally.
Javier is regular commentator on currency, fixed income and broader global macro themes in the financial media/press and a regular speaker and presenter at global investment conferences and fora.
Javier holds both a First-Class Degree and an M. Phil in Economics from Cambridge University. He has a keen interest in world history and all manner of racquet sports, and is also fluent in Spanish and French.
Conor Nevin
Director, Business Development
+1 917 746 9627
Conor Nevin
Director, Business Development
Dublin, Ireland
Conor Nevin is a Senior Director and Head of Asset Management Sales in the US East Coast, and UK & Ireland territories.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2019, Conor worked at another leading provider of macroeconomic research, Capital Economics, where he managed the North American Sales Teams for five years. Conor’s experience before entering the world of economic research is in financial services, providing investment and financial planning advice to clients in Ireland.
Ben May
Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis
+44 (0) 203 910 8015
Ben May
Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis
London, United Kingdom
Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy.
Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.
牛津经济研究院 (Oxford Economics) 是全球领先的独立经济预测及量化分析机构。基于领先的全球经济分析及行业分析模型,我们提供覆盖全球200多个经济体、100多个行业板块和8,000多个城市和地区的经济研究报告、预测及分析工具;并能够协助客户对市场走向进行预测,分析其对于经济、社会及商业的影响,为客户制定决策奠定坚实基础。
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