Beyond the Headlines | 17 11 月 2023

2024 年全球关键主题 | 超越头条新闻

Ben May

Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis


人们普遍认为,全球经济增长和通胀将在 2024 年放缓,发达经济体央行将在下半年开始转向。

在本周的 “头条新闻之外 “节目中,宏观预测与分析总监本-梅(Ben May)将概述我们认为将对明年经济和金融市场的准确走向产生重要影响的三个关键主题。


It’s widely believed that global growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and that advanced economy central banks will begin to pivot in H2. We identify three key themes which will have an important bearing on the precise path the economy and financial markets next year. The first key theme centers around the likelihood that the global economy will underperform even the gloomy consensus view next year.

In particular, we expect the delayed impact of past monetary policy tightening and a switch to more restrictive fiscal policy to play key roles in a sustained weak patch for advanced economies. The second theme is that we expect greater inflation divergence to occur across the advanced economies. Despite being more pessimistic on the growth outlook, we expect inflation in most of these economies to remain sticky and to fail to deliver any positive downward surprises.

The key exception is the eurozone, there we think inflation will fall more sharply than others expect, driven mainly by weaker food and energy inflation. Other economists and markets are becoming more aligned with this view on the eurozone, but we think they underestimate the extent of the divergence with US inflation. As a result, we expect the ECB to cut rates more aggressively than markets anticipate.

Despite the gloom, some bright spots will emerge, which is our third key theme. High neutral rates and term premia should keep longer term bond yields above their pre-pandemic rates. But we believe that longer term forward rates have risen too far and may fall back, even without downside growth and inflation surprises. Finally, we expect Japan, which hasn’t implemented major policy tightening, to be one of the few advanced economies to better its pre-pandemic growth performance.



过去十年经济增长乏力,但这并没有减缓市场的辉煌,尤其是股票市场的回报。 但是,当前的经济现实–从美国的货币紧缩到中国破碎的增长模式–可能会使中期的结果更加复杂。

为了帮助投资专业人士做出决策,在当今市场中最大限度地利用机会,牛津经济研究院提供了深入的报道以及强大的宏观和资产配置框架。 我们的产品和服务可帮助决策者剔除杂音–提供开发深度经济模型、了解行业格局、评估投资可能性以及做出盈利决策所需的情报。







我们的 "全球经济模型 "为预测和测试各种情况提供了一个严格、一致的结构。