Recent worries of a slowdown look overly pessimistic

Sept / Oct 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We think that the more bearish takes on recent economic news are overly gloomy.
• The US economy is slowing but is still on track to expand at a solid pace.
• There is still scope for a modest recovery in Europe, while growth in emerging markets will likely remain broadly unchanged.

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