Research Briefing | Mar 12, 2024

The US and China prompt upgrade to our global GDP forecast

Mar/Apr 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

  • Upgrades to our forecasts for the US and China have prompted us to raise our global GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 2.4% in 2024 and by 0.2ppts to 2.8% in 2025.
  • Although the ongoing economic resilience in the US has prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates this year, we still expect other major central banks to loosen monetary policy in H2.
  • Over the past month, recent data have supported our view that the worst point for global growth may now have passed.

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