Research Briefing | Jan 10, 2025

Outlook remains resilient despite mounting risks

Jan 2025 / Feb 2025

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

  • As Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president approaches, there has been little additional clarity regarding the exact nature of the policies he will pursue in office.
  • We still expect world GDP growth will pick up to 2.8% this year and 2.9% in 2026, following an estimated 2.7% expansion in 2024.
  • But risks to our outlook remain high, reflecting uncertainty about both the scale and timing of changes to US fiscal, tariff, and migration plans.

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