World Economic Prospects: US upgrade prompts a small lift to our global GDP forecast

Nov/Dec 2023

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• An upward revision to our assessment of the US outlook has helped to push up our world GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 2.6% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. Despite the upgrade, growth prospects for the year ahead remain weak.
• The latest batch of national accounts data for many large economies confirmed that recent economic resilience was maintained in Q3.
• Our latest estimate is that world GDP expanded by 0.7% in Q3, a little stronger than the growth rates of the preceding two quarters and our forecast from a month ago.

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