Research Briefing | Feb 18, 2022

US Recovery Tracker regains footing as Omicron fades

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.4ppts to 96.3 in the week ended February 4, recouping almost all of its losses since Omicron first began to weigh on the economy. Stronger mobility, looser financial conditions, and improving health drove the latest week’s increase, while declines in demand, production, and employment restrained growth.

What you will learn:

  • Thirty of our 50 State Recovery Trackers rose, with states on the west and east coasts registering the greatest gains.
  • The steep decline in new Covid cases since mid-January will support more upbeat mobility and stronger production, and demand and employment will rise as services spending accelerates and goods spending remains buoyant.
  • Meanwhile, a more hawkish Federal Reserve – we now expect the Fed will hike by 50bps in March – will make financial conditions tighter, but not tight enough to meaningfully constrict growth.
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