Will 2021 mark the end of the lowflation era?

A key uncertainty for 2021 will be the response of inflation to the disruption caused by the pandemic and this year’s likely strong economic recovery. While headline inflation is already beginning to climb and looks set to rise further in the months ahead, our view is that any pick-up in underlying inflation pressures will be far less dramatic and that the likelihood of sustained above target inflation is still relatively small.

In this webinar we set out some of the key factors behind this assessment and explore the balance of risks around our projections and the extent to which rising bond yields are justified.

Ben May Bio

 

 

Ben May | Director of Global Macroeconomic Research

Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy. Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.

Innes McFee Bio

 

 

Innes McFee| Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services

Innes McFee is Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services, based in London. Innes oversees the activities of the Macro & Investor Services teams globally, including the Global Macro Forecast and Global Macro Service.

Innes joined Oxford Economics in 2017 after 6 years at Lloyds Banking Group as a Senior Economist. At Lloyds Innes was responsible for the economic scenarios underpinning the Group’s internal planning and stress testing; analysis of key risks; and developing Lloyds’ approach to multiple economic scenarios for IFRS9. In addition, Innes’ role included developing the Group’s capability in modelling macroeconomic fundamentals and UK banking markets and advising the Group Corporate Treasury on financial market developments.

Prior to joining Lloyds Innes was an Economic Advisor at HM Treasury where his roles included management of the UK’s foreign currency reserves; US economist; and G20 macroeconomic policy advisor. Innes has a first class undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Durham and a MSc in Economics from Warwick University. 

 

Gaurav Saroliya Bio

 

 

Gaurav Saroliya | Director of Global Macro Strategy

Gaurav Saroliya is Director of Global Macro Strategy. He is responsible for our overall asset price views and for developing and delivering our investment strategy product offering. His focus is on providing thematic-research based actionable investment advice for investment managers. But his analytics are relevant for corporate Treasurers too insofar as they generate actionable dynamic hedging advice for cash-flow exposures.

Gaurav has 15 years of professional experience spanning academic research, active portfolio management and multi-asset investment strategy. As a quantitative investment researcher at State Street Global Advisors he performed fundamental fair-valuation research for fixed income and foreign exchange. At UBP asset management, he was involved with mutli-asset active portfolio management during the depths of the 2007-08 global financial crisis and beyond. He has also got experience of proprietary trading in FX and liquid rates markets at Lloyds, in addition to emerging markets fixed-income / FX research at Commerzbank and UniCredit.

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