The neutral rate has risen, but by less than most think

Date: Monday 20 November 2023

When will US policy rates start to fall, and how far? To help answer this, we have updated our estimates of the long-run US neutral interest rate. We discuss the extent to which the neutral rate has shifted due to fundamental structural forces and critically examine claims that the world has entered a period of perpetually high interest rates.

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Ben May

Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis

+44 (0) 203 910 8015

Ben May

Director, Macro Forecasting & Analysis

London, United Kingdom

Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy.

Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ben spent over six years at Capital Economics and was responsible for the coverage of the southern Eurozone economies throughout the Eurozone crisis. Before that, he spent seven years at the Bank of England, working in three divisions of the Monetary Analysis area of the Bank, which provides research and analysis for the Monetary Policy Committee. Ben has a BSc in Economics with Statistics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from University College London.

Daniel Harenberg
Daniel Harenberg

Lead Economist, Global Macro

+49 69 80883012

Daniel Harenberg

Daniel Harenberg

Lead Economist, Global Macro

Frankfurt, Germany

Daniel is a Lead Economist in Oxford Economics’ Global Team. Based in our Frankfurt office, he works on long-term, structural economic questions and provides coverage for the Netherlands. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Daniel was a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic Research of ETH Zurich in Switzerland and at the Research Center SAFE of Goethe University in Frankfurt. Daniel received his PhD in economics from the University of Mannheim and has published in leading international journals such as the International Economic Review and Quantitative Economics.

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