Reputation and sustainability: Challenges for EM fiscal policies

Our analysis will challenge preconceptions on which EM governments can be trusted to pursue sufficient fiscal adjustment. Covid-19 will leave a legacy of higher debt stocks, and announced fiscal adjustment paths vary in ambition. We demonstrate which EMs will suffer most under a global stagflation shock, and reveal which deserve the best and worst reputation for sticking to fiscal targets over the last decade. 

Gabriel Sterne

Head of Global Strategy Services and EM Macro Research

Gabriel Sterne

Head of Global Strategy Services and EM Macro Research

Gabriel Sterne | Head of Global Strategy Services and EM Macro Research

Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for the financial markets, as Head of a team that integrates global strategy and EM macro views.  Recently he has published most on populism, demographics and other drivers of low global yields, and the evolution of global fragilities as expansions mature. On the EM side he is a global expert on sovereign crisis and debt restructuring issues.

 

Tatiana Orlova

Lead EM Economist

Tatiana Orlova

Lead EM Economist

Tatiana Orlova | Lead EM Economist

Tatiana recently joined Oxford Economics as a Lead Economist for Emerging Markets. Prior to this, she was working at Emerginomics which she founded and was also the Chief Economist.  From November 2012 until April 2016 Tatiana worked for The Royal Bank of Scotland, London as the Director in CEEMEA Research, Fixed Income. 

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