Middle East: How strong will the recovery be this year?
After a painful 2020, the outlook for the GCC region is looking up as we enter 2021. Covid-19 appears to be more under control than in other parts of the world, vaccines are being rolled out at pace and oil prices have rallied above $50pb, while there have also been positive policy developments such as the rapprochement between Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar, the Abraham Accords and policy reforms in several GCC countries. These factors will contribute to a recovery in 2021 following the deep contractions driven by the pandemic and oil price slump last year.
Scott Livermore |Chief Economist, Oxford Economics Middle East, and Managing Director
Scott Livermore is also Managing Director of Consultancy in the Middle East and Asia, as well as a member of Oxford Economics’ Senior Management Team. Scott leads many of the major projects in the GCC and Asia which have recently included capacity building, macroeconomic modelling, and policy impact assessment engagements for government institutions in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman, and IFRS 9 and Stress Testing engagements in Singapore, Thailand, and Hong Kong.
Frontier market turmoil: Argentina’s value, Sri Lanka’s crisis, Egyptian FX worries
Frontier markets will continue to be volatile in the near term, but bond valuations are attractive with plenty of arbitrage opportunities. We see value in Argentine bonds, as the country should benefit from higher commodity prices and liquidity risks are contained; we focus on the light at the end of Sri Lanka’s tunnel, with markets failing to price in the possibility of a successful IMF program; and also our concerns that further depreciation may be consistent with Egyptian stabilisation efforts.Find Out More
Latin America’s winners and losers from the war in Ukraine
As a relevant commodity exporter, Latin America stands to benefit from the generalized increase in prices for raw materials. But the gains will not be uniform across all countries or across all sector of the economy, as the renewed rise in inflation will squeeze consumers' incomes and savings.Find Out More