Global financial imbalances after the pandemic
One of the biggest yet least understood features of the world economy are the huge financial imbalances across countries. Over the past decades, international net foreign assets – foreign assets owned by residents, net of domestic assets owned by foreigners – have exploded, affecting current accounts, exchange rates, interest rates, and more. That’s why it’s paramount for policymakers and market participants to understand where NFAs are headed.
In this webinar, we discuss how demographic forces are a key factor that will cause tectonic shifts in the world’s global financial imbalances in the coming decades.
We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas:
- APAC – Wednesday 21st July | 10:00 HKT
- EMEA – Wednesday 21st July | 10:00 BST
- Americas – Wednesday 21st July | 16:00 EDT
Daniel Harenberg | Lead Economist
Daniel is a Lead Economist working in Oxford Economics’ Thematic Research Team and the European Team. Based in our Frankfurt office, he works on long-term, structural economic questions and provides coverage for the Netherlands.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Daniel spent five years as a post-doctoral research fellow at the Center for Economic Research of ETH Zurich in Switzerland and at the Research Center SAFE of Goethe University in Frankfurt, where he used computationally intensive DSGE models to study investment, capital markets, and model uncertainty. Daniel holds a Ph.D. in economics from University of Mannheim and has published in leading international journals such as the International Economic Review and Quantitative Economics.
Is sterling in the midst of a sell-off or a full-blown crisis?
Policy announcements are coming thick and fast in the UK at the moment and have been greeted with the most significant sell-off in UK assets in decades. Is this a case of markets overreacting or have the UK public finances been put on an unsustainable footing? Will the Bank of England react to the fall in sterling or are markets setting themselves up to be disappointed? We will set out our views on all these topics and set out the conditions under which we think this volatility will subside.Find Out More
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?
The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.Find Out More