Research Briefing | Oct 10, 2023

Why we’re more pessimistic on LatAm growth than the IMF

Our growth outlook for Latin America is lower than the IMF’s forecasts, published today. A key area of difference is our views on US prospects. We expect the US to enter a mild technical recession soon and other advanced economies to cool significantly due to their higher-for-longer monetary policies.

What you will learn:

  • The IMF lifted its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.3%, up 0.4ppts from its interim July update. The IMF’s outlook is still above our baseline estimate of 2.0% and the consensus projection of 1.8%.
  • Our forecast of a slower end to 2023 and beginning to 2024 also means that our 1.1% growth baseline for the LatAm region next year is also below the IMF’s estimates of 2.3% and the consensus. We expect a larger impact from accumulated monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation, as well as domestic idiosyncratic factors.
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