Research Briefing | Mar 3, 2022

United Kingdom’s housing market to cool after 2021 boom

UK Housing Market

We expect the UK housing market to remain stuck in a state of high prices-low transactions. Though price growth should cool, a soft landing is more likely than an abrupt correction if unemployment and debt servicing costs stay low.

What you will learn:

  • Without the support of the expired stamp duty holiday, we expect transactions will fall 7% in 2022.
  • Stretched affordability and the low levels of properties being marketed are likely to keep transactions well below historical averages.
  • We don’t consider rising interest rates to be a serious threat to house prices in the near-term because most mortgages are on fixed-rate terms.

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