Research Briefing | Mar 15, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is sending tremors through CEE

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In addition to surging energy prices, CEE economies will be hurt by renewed supply shortages in manufacturing, loss of access to Russian markets, currency depreciation, and the refugee crisis. 

What you will learn:

  • As a result, we have cut our growth forecast by around 1ppt this year and 0.5ppt in 2023. But the situation remains very volatile, and given the CEE’s exposure, the risks are tilted heavily to the downside.
  • The chief culprit has been soaring commodity prices pushing inflation ever higher.
  • Double-digit inflation arrived in Czech Republic in February, and other countries are likely to soon follow suit.
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