Research Briefing | Nov 4, 2021

MENA | Regional PMIs, Saudi revenues rise, OPEC+ talks

MENA | Regional PMIs, Saudi revenues rise, OPEC+ talks

The non-oil PMIs for the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar remained in expansionary territory in October, a run that has continued for 11, 14 and 16 months respectively. Output and new orders continue to accelerate as restrictions in the region ease. The UAE is set to see a boost to demand from the start of the World Expo 2020, which started in October and lasts until March 2022.

What you will learn:

  • In Q3 2021, Saudi Arabia recorded its first budget surplus since Q1 2019 as high global oil prices helped oil revenues grow 60% y/y.
  • This has also been reflected in Saudi Aramco posting its highest quarterly earnings since going public in
    2019.
  • We expect oil revenues to remain high as Brent is forecast to stay above $60pb throughout 2022 after averaging just $42pb in 2020 OPEC+ is under pressure to increase production but is unlikely to move until there is more evidence to suggest that high Brent oil prices are here to stay and are not transitory.

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