Research Briefing | Nov 4, 2021

MENA | Regional PMIs, Saudi revenues rise, OPEC+ talks

MENA | Regional PMIs, Saudi revenues rise, OPEC+ talks

The non-oil PMIs for the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar remained in expansionary territory in October, a run that has continued for 11, 14 and 16 months respectively. Output and new orders continue to accelerate as restrictions in the region ease. The UAE is set to see a boost to demand from the start of the World Expo 2020, which started in October and lasts until March 2022.

What you will learn:

  • In Q3 2021, Saudi Arabia recorded its first budget surplus since Q1 2019 as high global oil prices helped oil revenues grow 60% y/y.
  • This has also been reflected in Saudi Aramco posting its highest quarterly earnings since going public in
    2019.
  • We expect oil revenues to remain high as Brent is forecast to stay above $60pb throughout 2022 after averaging just $42pb in 2020 OPEC+ is under pressure to increase production but is unlikely to move until there is more evidence to suggest that high Brent oil prices are here to stay and are not transitory.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation

We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.

Find Out More

Post

Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year

We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.

Find Out More