Research Briefing | Apr 20, 2022

How a Le Pen victory could harm France’s economic prospects

How a Le Pen victory could harm France’s economic prospectsThe implementation of Marine Le Pen’s main economic proposals would drag on France’s medium-term growth prospects, according to our analysis. We estimate Le Pen’s measures would drag potential GDP 3% lower than our baseline by 2027, and public debt would soar to 120% of GDP. The labour market would also suffer, with the unemployment rate rising above 9%.

Lowering the retirement age back to 60 years would be one of the most problematic economic proposals, as it would reduce the working-age population and available labour force, weighing on potential growth.

What you will learn:

  • How a victory of Le Pen would drag on the medium-term economic outlook
  • Why a Le Pen programme would result in a widening of the fiscal deficit
  • How French yields would soar under a Le Pen victory
  • The outlook for Emmanuel Macron re-election 

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