Research Briefing | May 12, 2021

Canada | Recovery Tracker dips but health index begins to improve

Canada Recovery Tracker dips but health index begins to improve - iPad

The Canada Recovery Tracker (CRT) fell 0.6ppts to 85.6 in the week ended April 23, its fifth consecutive decline, but the health index rose for the first time since early March. Tighter restrictions are weighing on mobility and activity, while employment and financials show further resilience. Vaccinations are accelerating, and new cases appear to have plateaued, reaffirming our view that the economy will push through the third wave and continue growing in Q2. A sustained reopening of the economy this summer should kick-start more robust growth in H2 2021.

What you will learn:

  • The health index improved 4.4ppts as new cases per million fell for the first time in six weeks. The positive test rate held steady at 6.5%, but hospitalizations rose 13ppts w/w to the highest level since late January. 
  • Tighter restrictions continued to weigh on activity and mobility in the week ended April 23. The activity index dropped 1.9ppts, led by declines in restaurant bookings and air traffic. 
  • The sentiment index declined 2.7ppts, its fifth consecutive drop, as lower durable goods and travel interest offset a rise in housing interest. 

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