Chartbook: Global Construction Outlook Q4 2023

We have downgraded our outlook and now forecast global construction activity to fall 0.3% in 2024 to US$9.6tn and rebound 2.4% in 2025 to $9.8tn. This downgrade is largely attributed to historical data revisions made by China’s National Bureau of Statistics which saw a higher level of activity in 2023. China accounts for almost 30% of global construction activity. We have also downgraded our outlook in anticipation of a more muted near-term recovery in building activity across Europe and the US.

What you will learn:

• Residential building activity is forecast to fall 1.2% over 2024 to US$3.88tn, before rebounding 3.6% in 2025 to US$4.02tn. We have downgraded our US outlook following weak starts over Q3, nonetheless the sector is anticipated to rebound from 2024. We have also slightly reduced the expected fall in Chinese activity, which found additional support from the government’s policy response. Residential activity in China will not return to growth until 2025, with activity levels anticipated to remain at structurally lower levels.
  
• Non-residential building activity is forecast to fall 0.8% in 2024 to US$2.53tn and rebound 0.5% in 2025 to US$2.54tn.  The US has invested heavily in strategically important manufacturing facilities, which saw activity grow stronger than expected over 2023. We anticipate a slowdown in work over the coming years as high financing and construction costs weigh on demand.
  
• Civil engineering activity is forecast to grow 1.2% in 2024 to US$3.17tn and 2.4% in 2025 to US$3.24tn. The historical data revision in China causes us to increase our forecast for the level of activity, but downgrade our forecast for growth in activity. Work will continue to be supported by the ongoing wave of public stimulus, including the US’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Next Generation EU fund, and the Chinese Government’s response to the real estate downturn.