The soft end to 2025 won’t extend into 2026

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 450 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks.

Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• Annual global GDP growth has fluctuated within a tight 2.7%-3% range since the start of 2023 despite a swathe of economic shocks and a highly uncertain backdrop. 
• We expect this phenomenon to continue next year and forecast world GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2026.
• Our estimates suggest that the global economy has ended 2025 on a soft note. 

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