Norway | Outlook for 2022 holding firm despite inflation and Covid headwinds
Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% after the 2.6% Q3 expansion was broadly in line with our estimate, and we continue to expect a 4.1% growth in 2022. After an unusually strong August print, GDP rose 0.6% m/m in September as private consumption growth remained solid.
What you will learn:
- A sharp rise in Covid cases both domestically and abroad has emerged as a downside risk during the winter and into the new year, but we don’t think it currently warrants significant forecast revisions.
- Consumption was the principal mainland growth driver during Q3, rising 6% thanks to a strong resurgence in services spending, while goods spending held firm despite some normalisation in consumption patterns.
- Exports rose by 6.5% thanks to strong demand for oil and natural gas from Europe and increased extraction activities, but exports of manufacturing goods failed to return above the Q1 2021 peak.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Global Scenarios Service: Inflation Victory?
The outlook for the global economy has improved since the previous quarter’s Global Scenarios Service report and a soft landing is in prospect. While we anticipate a period of only steady and unspectacular growth ahead, this is no mean feat after the aggressive policy rate hikes of 2022 and 2023.
Find Out MorePost
South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & EFF’ election scenario
This briefing sets out the second of our four scenarios for South Africa's general election: the ANC wins only 40% of the vote and makes a coalition deal with the radical leftists of the EFF.
Find Out More