Inflation risks pose conundrum for the CEE
Inflationary pressures have strengthened and broadened in Central and Eastern Europe recently, prompting a hawkish turn by the region’s central banks. We still think many of the drivers are temporary and will gradually abate next year. But risks of persistently high inflation driven by structural factors are now emerging, leading us to raise our inflation forecasts again.
What you will learn:
- The CEE region has been hit hard by the current wave of infections, prompting policymakers to re-impose containment measures.
- Inflation will continue to rise during the winter, before slowing in H2 2022 as many of the current drivers will gradually fade.
- But risks are high that inflation might trend higher yet. This leaves CEE central banks in a bit of a conundrum. Most have turned hawkish in recent months, front-loading hikes as inflation soared.
Tags:
Related research
Post
Relative return index signals improving CRE attractiveness
Our latest global relative return index (RRI) signals that risk-adjusted investment opportunities in commercial real estate (CRE) should start to emerge this year before becoming more widespread in 2025. At this point, our baseline expected returns move higher than required returns, pushing the global all-property index above the 50 mark.
Find Out More
Post
South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & friends’ election scenario
This Research Briefing sets out the first of four scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the ANC wins over 46% of the vote share at the national level, and forms a government by working with small, constituency-based parties.
Find Out More