GDP growth forecast for Sweden nudged down to 3.2% due to weaker near-term activity
Growth in Q3 and previous quarters was revised up, pushing up our 2021 forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%. But we have lowered our near-term forecast due to the emergence of the Omicron variant, although this should be compensated for by faster growth later next year to give 2022 growth of 3.2%, slightly lower than projected last month.
What you will learn:
- We expect Sweden to have minimal formal restrictions, although consumers are likely to voluntarily change their behaviour during the winter months.
- The job recovery continues at a steady pace. According to the Public Employment Service, the unemployment rate eased to 7.2% in November, in line with the average just before the pandemic.
- Headline CPI inflation jumped to 3.3% y/y in November from 2.8% in October, in line with our forecast, as electricity prices surged again.
Tags:
Related research
Post
Nowcast shows wage growth slowing sharply
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If official data mirrors our sentiment indicator, it should keep the Monetary Policy Committee on track to cut interest rates in the summer.
Find Out More
Post
The euro and depreciation – shake, shake it off
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative productivity, terms of trade, and the current account will likely be less supportive of the euro than we thought. In addition, a stronger stock market than initially envisaged will attract more financial flows into the US than we had expected.
Find Out More