GDP growth forecast for Sweden nudged down to 3.2% due to weaker near-term activity
Growth in Q3 and previous quarters was revised up, pushing up our 2021 forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%. But we have lowered our near-term forecast due to the emergence of the Omicron variant, although this should be compensated for by faster growth later next year to give 2022 growth of 3.2%, slightly lower than projected last month.
What you will learn:
- We expect Sweden to have minimal formal restrictions, although consumers are likely to voluntarily change their behaviour during the winter months.
- The job recovery continues at a steady pace. According to the Public Employment Service, the unemployment rate eased to 7.2% in November, in line with the average just before the pandemic.
- Headline CPI inflation jumped to 3.3% y/y in November from 2.8% in October, in line with our forecast, as electricity prices surged again.
Tags:
Related research
Post
APAC Key Themes 2026: Paybacks, policy offsets and trade
We believe APAC will remain the strongest global performer in 2026. However, the growth trajectory will likely be more uneven than in past cycles.
Find Out More
Post
Japan’s fiscal policy will remain loose, which increases risks to debt sustainabilit
We've changed our fiscal outlook for Japan in our December forecast round. We now expect the new government to set a primary deficit close to that of 2024, at 2%-3% of GDP for 2025-2027, instead of restoring a balanced budget by taking advantage of strong tax revenue. We assume higher bond yields will force the government to take measures to reduce the deficit from 2028.
Find Out More
