Omicron weighs on near-term growth outlook for Norway

Based on the positive carryover effects from two strong months of GDP growth in August and September, we have raised our mainland GDP forecasts for mainland Norway to 4.1% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. Still, we expect the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant to impact growth towards the end of Q4 and into the start of next year as new restrictions are enacted.

What you will learn:

• High vaccination coverage should preclude the reimposition of strict restrictions, but new limits on hospitality will push back the recovery of services.
• Spending on services surpassed pre-pandemic levels as October marked the first full month without domestic restrictions on activity.
• With energy prices falling in November, the current account should start to decline to an average 10.7% of GDP over 2022.