Global Coronavirus Watch: Nearer-term inflation risks build
The latest US and China inflation numbers have been shrugged off by markets despite being a bit higher than expected. While we still think that talk of a shift to a new regime is premature, the risks to the near-term inflation outlook are tilted to the upside due to pandemic-related imbalances and bottlenecks.
The shipping industry is lurching from one setback to another, and disruption to supply chains and rising costs is becoming the norm. A quick return to prepandemic shipping costs seems a distant prospect, so it’s increasingly likely that higher shipping costs will be pushed up the supply chain.
Similarly, the effects of past surges in commodity prices are unlikely to have been fully passed through to goods and food prices particularly, while ongoing chip shortages could continue to push up prices.
Although we raised our 2021 CPI inflation forecasts this month, the risks to our slightly-above-consensus inflation forecasts remain skewed to the upside. Stronger core and food inflation may temper the expected fall back in annual energy inflation, but even if inflation pressures ease more slowly, we think it’s unlikely to de-anchor inflation expectations. Fundamentally, we still consider this episode to be a transitory shock.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
South Africa: Elections2024 | ‘ANC & friends’ election scenario
This Research Briefing sets out the first of four scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the ANC wins over 46% of the vote share at the national level, and forms a government by working with small, constituency-based parties.
Find Out More
Post
BoJ likely to end zero interest rates in autumn
As expected, the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 0%-0.1% at Friday's meeting. With more confidence on the ongoing wage-driven inflation dynamics and a strong appetite for policy normalisation, the BoJ looks more likely to end its zero-interest rate policy in the autumn.
Find Out More